Competitive mixed martial arts hasn't been around long enough to come up with any definitive theories on length of career, but David Williams at Fight Opinion did a nice job recently of chronicling the career of the some of the biggest stars in the history of the sport. He points out that with few exceptions, no matter when you start your career, the nine-year mark is about when you see a downturn.
Check out these fighters:
CHUCK LIDDELL: MMA debut ? 5/18/98, 9-year mark ? 5/18/07
Liddell's first fight after reaching the 9-year mark was his sudden first-round KO loss to Quinton "Rampage" Jackson. After that, Liddell's only win was against an "older" (by MMA years) fighter in Wanderlei Silva, and he was knocked out in brutal fashion by Rashad Evans, Mauricio "Shogun" Rua, and Rich Franklin.
FEDOR EMELIANENKO: MMA debut ? 5/21/00, 9-year mark ? 5/21/09
Emelianenko's first fight after nine years was the Strikeforce match against Brett Rogers, in which Emelianenko was put in more danger than usual. After that, Emelianenko, whose only previous loss was a doctor stoppage due to a cut against Tsuyoshi Kosaka, shockingly lost two fights in a row, to Fabricio Werdum and Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva.
TAKANORI GOMI: MMA debut ? 11/27/98, 9-year mark ? 11/27/07
For Gomi, the fight previous to reaching the 9-year mark was the now infamous war against Nick Diaz that the Nevada State Athletic Commission ruled a No Contest. Since then, Gomi is 5-4 ...
JENS PULVER: MMA debut ? 4/24/99, 9-year mark ? 4/24/08
This is arguably the hardest collapse to watch. Pulver reached the 9-year point of his career prior to his first WEC fight against Urijah Faber. Beginning with that fight, Pulver is 2-7 ...
WANDERLEI SILVA: MMA debut ? 11/1/96, 9-year mark ? 11/1/05
Silva's first two fights after the nine-year mark were wins: a split decision win against Ricardo Arona and a stoppage of Kazuyuki Fujita. After that, Silva is 2-5 ...
Williams also points out Tito Ortiz (debuted May of 1997, 2-4-1 since), Andrei Arlovski (Apr. of 1999, 2-4), Ken Shamrock (Sept. of 1993, 2-8), Mike Brown (Apr. of 2001, 1-3) and Rich Franklin (June of 1999, 3-3) all wilted once their ninth year of fighting started.
He also argues that it's also costly to begin a career before you're 21. Joe Stevenson and Karo Parisyan are two fighters having a tough time surviving and they're both not even 30 yet. Stevenson and Parisyan took their first pro fights at 16. Stevenson, 3-4 since his ninth year began, faces Javier Vasquez this weekend down at featherweight at UFC on Versus 4.
Randy Couture began his career at 34 and was competitive until 47. Can Urijah Faber buck this trend as he gets ready to challenge Dominick Cruz at UFC 132?
Faber, 32, is seven years and 10 months into his career. With advances in nutrition and training, it looks like he can do it. We'll see if the nine-year rule comes up and bites him some time in 2012.
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